Regional carbon predictions in a temperate forest using satellite lidar

Large uncertainties in terrestrial carbon stocks and sequestration predictions result from insufficient regional data characterizing forest structure. This study uses satellite waveform lidar from ICESat to estimate regional forest structure in central New England, where each lidar waveform estimates fine-scale forest heterogeneity. ICESat is a global sampling satellite, but does not provide wall-to-wall coverage. Comprehensive, wall-to-wall ecosystem state characterization is achieved through spatial extrapolation using the random forest machine-learning algorithm. This forest description allows for effective initialization of individual-based terrestrial biosphere models making regional carbon flux predictions. Within 42/43.5 N and 73/71.5 W, aboveground carbon was estimated at 92.47 TgC or 45.66 MgC ha−1, and net carbon fluxes were estimated at 4.27 TgC yr−1 or 2.11 MgC ha−1 yr−1. This carbon sequestration potential was valued at 47% of fossil fuel emissions in eight central New England counties. In preparation for new lidar and hyperspectral satellites, linking satellite data and terrestrial biosphere models are crucial in improving estimates of carbon sequestration potential counteracting anthropogenic sources of carbon

White paper – On the use of LiDAR data at AmeriFlux sites

Our aim is to inform the AmeriFlux community on existing and upcoming LiDAR technologies (atmospheric Doppler or Raman LiDAR often deployed at flux sites are not considered here), how it is currently used at flux sites, and how we believe it could, in the future, further contribute to the AmeriFlux vision. Heterogeneity in vegetation and ground properties at various spatial scales is omnipresent at flux sites, and 3D mapping of canopy, understory, and ground surface can help move the science forward

Uncertainty in parameterizing floodplain forest friction for natural flood management, using remote sensing

One potential Natural Flood Management (NFM) option is floodplain reforestation or manage existing riparian forests, with a view to increasing flow resistance and attenuate flood hydrographs. However, the effectiveness of floodplain forests as resistance agents, during different magnitude overbank floods, has yet to be appropriately parameterized for hydraulic models. Remote sensing offers high-resolution datasets capable of characterizing vegetation structure from a variety of platforms, but they contain uncertainty. For the first time, we demonstrate uncertainty propagation in remote sensing derivations of complex vegetation structure through roughness prediction and floodplain flow for extreme flows and different forest types (young and old Poplar plantations, young and old Pine plantations, and an unmanaged riparian forest). The lowest uncertainties resulted from terrestrial and airborne lidar, where airborne lidar is currently best at defining canopy leaf area, but more research is needed to determine wood area. Mean literature uncertainties in stem density, trunk diameter, wood, and leaf area indices (20, 10, 30, 20%, respectively) resulted in a combined Manning’s n uncertainty from 11–13% to 11–17% at 2 m to 8 m flow depths. This equates to 7–8% roughness uncertainty per 10% combined forest structure uncertainty. Individually, stem density and trunk diameter uncertainties resulted in the largest Manning’s n uncertainty at all flow depths, especially for flow though Pine plantations. For deeper flows, leaf and woody areas become much more important, especially for unmanaged riparian forests with low canopy morphology. Forest structure errors propagated to flow depth demonstrate that even small flows can change by a decimeter, while deeper flows can change by 40 cm or more. For flow depth, errors in canopy structure are deemed more severe in flows depths beyond 4–6 m. This study highlights the need for lower uncertainty in all forest structure components using remote sensing, to improve roughness parameterization and flood modeling for NFM

Imaging spectrometry-derived estimates of regional ecosystem composition for the Sierra Nevada, California

The composition of the plant canopy is a key attribute of terrestrial ecosystems, influencing the fluxes of carbon, water, and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere. Terrestrial ecosystem and biosphere models, which are used to predict how ecosystems are expected to respond to changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, and land-use change, require accurate representations of plant canopy composition at large spatial scales. The ability to accurately specify plant canopy composition is important because it determines the physiological and ecological properties of plants (such as leaf photosynthetic capacity, patterns of plant carbon allocation and tissue turnover, and the resulting dynamics of plant demography) that govern the biophysical and biogeochemical functioning of ecosystems. Traditionally, plant canopy composition has been represented in a coarse-grained manner within terrestrial biosphere models, with ecosystems being comprised of a single plant functional type (PFT). However, models are increasingly seeking to represent fine-scale spatial variation in plant functional diversity. In this study, we show how imaging spectrometry measurements can provide spatially-comprehensive estimates of within-biome heterogeneity in PFT composition across a functionally diverse and topographically heterogeneous ~710 km2 area in the Southern Sierra Mountains of California. AVIRIS (Airborne Visible Infrared Imaging Spectrometer) data at 18 m resolution from the recent HyspIRI Preparatory Mission (Hyperspectral InfraRed Imager) were used to estimate the sub-pixel fractions of seven PFTs represented in the ED2 terrestrial biosphere model: Shrub, Oak, Western Hardwood, Western Pine, Cedar/Fir, and High-elevation Pine, plus a Grass/NPV (Non-Photosynthetic Vegetation) fraction using Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA). ED2 is an individual-based terrestrial biosphere model capable of representing fine-scale sub-pixel ecosystem heterogeneity. Our results show that this methodology captures important elevation-related shifts in canopy composition that occur within the study area that are not resolved by existing multi-spectral land-cover products. These estimates modestly improved when the putative PFT endmembers considered in the mixture analysis were constrained using available geospatial data about the presence and absence of the PFTs in particular areas: the average RMSEs (root-mean-square errors) with the geospatially-constrained versus conventional method were 11.3% and 11.9% respectively, with larger reductions in the bias (i.e. mean error) in the abundances of Oak, Cedar/Fir, and Western Hardwood PFTs (ranging from 2.0% to 7.8%). At the hectare scale around four flux towers in the Southern Sierra Mountains, the overall composition improved from an RMSE of 18.2% (5.0-24.2% for individual PFTs) to RMSE 9.5% (3.3-13.2% for individual PFTs). Downgrading AVIRIS to 30 m resolution resulted in a reduction in accuracy of the constrained method to an RMSE of 12.7% (0-23.7%) with < 1% change in bias for all tree and shrub PFTs. Our results demonstrate that imaging spectrometry measurements from planned satellite missions such as HyspIRI, EnMAP (Environmental Mapping and Analysis Program), and HISUI (Hyper-spectral Imager SUIte) can provide important and much-needed information about fine-scale heterogeneity in the composition of plant canopies for constraining and improving terrestrial ecosystem and biosphere model simulations of regional- and global-scale vegetation dynamics and function

The effect of financial crises on deforestation: a global and regional panel data analysis

Managing our transition to sustainability requires a solid understanding of how conditions of financial crisis affect our natural environment. Yet, there has been little focus on the nature of the relationship between financial crises and environmental sustainability, especially in relation to forests and deforestation. This study addressed this gap by providing novel evidence on the impact of financial crises on deforestation. A panel data approach is used looking at Global Forest Watch deforestation data from > 150 countries in > 100 crises in the twenty-first century. This includes an analysis of crises effects on principle drivers of deforestation; timber and agricultural commodities—palm oil, soybean, coffee, cattle, and cocoa. At a global level, financial crises are associated with a reduction in deforestation rates (− 36 p.p) and deforestation drivers; roundwood (− 6.7 p.p.), cattle (− 2.3 p.p.) and cocoa production (− 8.3 p.p.). Regionally, deforestation rates in Asia, Africa, and Europe decreased by − 83, − 43, and 22 p.p, respectively. Drivers behind these effects may be different, from palm oil (− 1.3 p.p.) and cocoa (− 10.5 p.p.) reductions in Africa, to a combination of timber (− 9.5 p.p) and palm oil in Asia. Moreover, financial crises have a larger effect on deforestation in low-income, than upper middle- and high-income countries (− 51 vs − 39 and − 18 p.p. respectively). Using another main dataset on yearly forest cover—the ESA-Climate Change Initiative—a picture arises showing financial crises leading to small global decreases in forest cover (− 0.1 p.p.) with a small agricultural cover increase (0.1 p.p). Our findings point to financial crises as important moments for global deforestation dynamics. Yet, to consolidate benefits on decreasing deforestation, governments need to enhance their sustainable forest management during crisis periods rather than let it slip down national agendas. Finally, to achieve the SDGs related to forests, better global forest cover datasets are needed, with better forest loss/gain data, disturbance history, and understanding of mosaicked landscape dynamics within a satellite pixel

The great stagnation and environmental sustainability: a multidimensional perspective

Since the 2008/09 Great Financial Crisis, we have witnessed a prolonged period of persistent global economic slowdown termed the “Great Stagnation”. This study examines how this “new normal” is associated with critical environmental dynamics (i.e., biodiversity, water, forest, agriculture, emissions) in areas and groups with different socio‐environmental characteristics (i.e., income groups, continents, forest cover, biome, environmental performance index). Mixed results are shown. For instance, we find a deterioration in terrestrial and marine biodiversity, especially in middle‐ and high‐income countries in Africa and Europe. This includes a reduction in the global fish stock, driven by countries in Africa. In contrast, the Great Stagnation is associated with reductions in PM2.5 (lower‐ and upper mid‐income countries), CH4 emissions (upper mid‐income countries and Europe), forest loss (upper mid‐income countries and Asia), and increases in species habitat index (across most groupings). Our evidence indicates that periods of economic slowdown, such as the great stagnation, on their own cannot ensure a transition to a sustainable socio‐environmental system and may be associated with significant negative environmental effects. Managing our transition to sustainability will require concerted policy efforts across multiple environmental domains, not only on carbon emissions, and during periods of both strong and weak economic growth rates

The effect of financial crises on air pollutant emissions: an assessment of the short vs. medium-term effects

This paper empirically investigates the impact of financial crises on air pollutant emissions (CO2, SO2, NOx and PM2.5). A panel data approach is used, including 419 financial crisis episodes in >150 countries over the period 1970–2014. The short- and medium-term effects of crises are estimated, using a GMM specification (for short-term) and the estimation of impulse response functions (for medium-term). Results show that in the short-term, as a consequence financial crises, emissions decrease for all gases except for PM2.5. In particular, emissions of CO2, SO2 and NOx decrease by 2.6, 1.8, and 1.7% respectively. However, in the medium-term, financial crises cause insignificant effect on emissions, or in some cases even lead to a 1–2% increase, cancelling out the initial benefit. Our analysis also shows that the effect of crises is larger in high income and upper-middle income countries. Moreover, recent crises had a larger short-term impact on air pollutants than crises in previous decades. Our results suggest that the beneficial impact of financial crises on air quality is short-lived. To preserve this beneficial impact in the long run and avert new negative post-crisis emission patterns and dynamics, policy responses to financial crises should encompass tighter environmental regulations and green investments

Livelihood impacts of forest carbon protection in the context of Redd+ in Cross River State, Southeast Nigeria

The rate of landcover change linked to deforestation and forest degradation in tropical environments has continued to surge despite a series of forest governance policy instruments over the years. These informed the launch of one of the most important international policies called Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation Plus (REDD+) to combat forest destruction. REDD+ assumes that communities will have increased assets to natural capital which will enhance their livelihood portfolio and mitigate the effects of climate variability and change across biomes. The aim of this study is to ascertain the livelihoods impacts of forest carbon protection within the context of REDD+ in Cross River State, Nigeria. Six forest communities were chosen across three agroecological zones of the State. Anchored on the Sustainable Livelihood Framework, a set of questionnaires were administered to randomly picked households. The results indicate that more than half of the respondents aligned with financial payment and more natural resources as the perceived benefits of carbon protection. More so, a multinomial logistic regression showed that income was the main factor that influenced respondent’s support for forest carbon protection. Analysis of income trends from the ‘big seven’ non-timber forest resources in the region showed increase in Gnetum africanum, Bushmeat, Irvingia gabonensis, Garcinia kola, while carpolobia spp., Randia and rattan cane revealed declining income since inception of REDD+. The recorded increase in household income was attributed to a ban in logging. It is recommended that the forest communities should be more heavily involved in the subsequent phases of the project implementation to avoid carbon leakages

Quantification of above-ground biomass over the cross-river state, Nigeria, using sentinel-2 data

Higher-resolution wall-to-wall carbon monitoring in tropical Africa across a range of woodland types is necessary in reducing uncertainty in the global carbon budget and improving accounting for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation Plus (REDD+). This study uses Sentinel-2 multispectral imagery combined with climatic and edaphic variables to estimate the regional distribution of aboveground biomass (AGB) for the year 2020 over the Cross River State, a tropical forest region in Nigeria, using random forest (RF) machine learning. Forest inventory plots were collected over the whole state for training and testing of the RF algorithm, and spread over undisturbed and disturbed tropical forests, and woodlands in croplands and plantations. The maximum AGB plot was estimated to be 588 t/ha with an average of 121.98 t/ha across the entire Cross River State. AGB estimated using random forest yielded an R2 of 0.88, RMSE of 40.9 t/ha, a relRMSE of 30%, bias of +7.5 t/ha and a total woody regional AGB of 0.246 Pg for the Cross River State. These results compare favorably to previous tropical AGB products; with total AGB of 0.290, 0.253, 0.330 and 0.124 Pg, relRMSE of 49.69, 57.09, 24.06 and 56.24% and −41, −48, −17 and −50 t/ha bias over the Cross River State for the Saatchi, Baccini, Avitabile and ESA CCI maps, respectively. These are all compared to the current REDD+ estimate of total AGB over the Cross River State of 0.268 Pg. This study shows that obtaining independent reference plot datasets, from a variety of woodland cover types, can reduce uncertainties in local to regional AGB estimation compared with those products which have limited tropical African and Nigerian woodland reference plots. Though REDD+ biomass in the region is relatively larger than the estimates of this study, REDD+ provided only regional biomass rather than pixel-based biomass and used estimated tree height rather than the actual tree height measurement in the field. These may cast doubt on the accuracy of the estimated biomass by REDD+. These give the biomass map of this current study a comparative advantage over others. The 20 m wall-to-wall biomass map of this study could be used as a baseline for REDD+ monitoring, evaluation, and reporting for equitable distribution of payment for carbon protection benefits and its management

Assessing drivers of intra-seasonal grassland dynamics in a Kenyan savannah using digital repeat photography

Understanding grassland dynamics and their relationship to weather and grazing is critical for pastoralists whose livelihoods depend on grassland productivity. Studies investigating the impacts of climate and human factors on inter-seasonal grassland dynamics have focused mostly on changes to vegetation structure. Yet, quantifying the impact of these on the inter-seasonal dynamics of specific grassland communities is not known. This study uses digital repeat photography to examine how intra-seasonal grassland dynamics of different grassland communities are affected by precipitation, temperature, and grazing in a heterogeneous semi-arid savannah in Kenya. A low-cost digital repeat camera network allowed for fine-scale temporal and spatial variability analysis of grassland dynamics and grazing intensity. Over all grass communities, our results show precipitation driving mainly early-season and in some cases mid-season flushing, temperature driving end-of-season senescence, and grazing influencing mid-season declines. Yet, our study quantifies how these three drivers do not uniformly impact grassland species communities. Specifically, Cynodon and Cynodon/Bothriochloa communities are rapidly and positively associated with precipitation, where mid-season declines in Cynodon communities are associated with grazing and late-season declines in Cynodon/Bothriochloa communities are associated with temperature increases. Setaria communities, on the other hand, have weaker associations with the drivers, with limited positive associations with precipitation and grazing. Kunthii/Digitaria diverse communities had no association with the three drivers. Highly diverse mixed communities were associated with increased precipitation and temperature, as well as lower intensity grazing. Our research sheds light on the complex interactions between plants, animals, and weather. Furthermore, this study also demonstrates the potential of digital repeated photography to inform about fine-scale spatial and temporal patterns of semi-arid grassland vegetation and grazing, with the goal of assisting in the formulations of management practises that better capture the intra-annual variability of highly heterogeneous dryland systems